The Anti-Fragile Draft: Building Lineups That Survive Variance
A framework for constructing rosters that hold up against injury, bust risk, and the chaos of an NFL season.
Rankings, research, and unvarnished takes from an analyst who's been in the lab since 2018. No hot takes for the timeline — just the math, the tape, and the edge.
A framework for constructing rosters that hold up against injury, bust risk, and the chaos of an NFL season.
The first cut at the 2026 rookie class — who graduates as a true blue-chipper and who's a tier-three flier.
Workload, target distribution, and a defense that's about to ask a lot of him. The case against the room's favorite.
"Fantasy is a numbers game with a human story underneath. The work is finding the signal in both."
John Earley has been in the fantasy football industry since 2018, with bylines at RotoWire and PlayerProfiler. He currently writes and builds models at ETR. UW–Madison '22.
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